Dems see warning signs for Harris with Latino men in Pennsylvania

One Pennsylvania elected official granted anonymity to speak freely complained that “they need to be ramping up with the Latinos” even more in the closing weeks, while another Latino leader in the state, who attended the Hispanic reception earlier this month, said they were worried about “getting Latino men over whatever issues they have about electing a woman as president — that’s on a lot of people’s minds.”

Since Harris replaced President Joe Biden atop the Democratic ticket, she’s significantly improved Democrats’ numbers with voters of color across the board, making the party competitive again in diverse Sun Belt states. She is expected to win the majority of Latino voters in Pennsylvania and nationally. But her weakness among Latino men — and Trump’s specific appeal to this group — is worrying to operatives on the ground in Pennsylvania, because even moderate erosion with this group could affect the state’s results.

If there is any relief for Democrats on the ground, it’s that Republicans haven’t done more to court those voters, several operatives said.

“If they were to invest, I think they could really take the Democratic Party for a run,” said Martinez, who hosts a four-hour, daily radio program that reaches hundreds of thousands of Latinos in the Lehigh Valley. He noted that Harris herself, when she was still Biden’s running mate, called into his radio show, as did Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), while their GOP counterparts have not.

The uneven outreach is reflected in campaign spending targeting Latino voters in the state. The Harris campaign and her Democratic allies have pumped nearly $2 million into Spanish-language TV ads in Pennsylvania, while the Trump campaign and his Republican allies have spent only $175,000 on Spanish-language ads, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm. The Harris campaign has 30 staffers dedicated to Latino outreach in the state, while the Trump campaign has one.

Jimmy Zumba, a Pennsylvania-based Republican strategist, acknowledged that he had “hope[d] there would be more ads on radio and TV.”

“If Republicans were to spend more money or perhaps hire a couple more outreach people for the Latino community,” then “I think it’d be more effective to gain more people,” Zumba said. But he did praise a Latino-focused GOP staffer at its office in Reading, Pennsylvania, who is “great,” he said.

Jaime Florez, Hispanic communications director for the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee, said the campaign “decided not to do specific offices aimed at any particular community” because the “main issues are common for all communities — inflation, high prices, affects Latinos, Asians, African-Americans, everyone, so there’s no reason to do something specific.”

“We do it in English and Spanish, but the message is the same for all the communities,” Florez said.

The Harris campaign, for its part, points to a long list of outreach — through events, organizing and paid advertising — as evidence of its work to appeal to Latinos and address concerns raised by some Pennsylvania Democrats. They see the final weeks of the campaign as a key opportunity to pick up these voters, who they argue tend to tune out politics and decide their vote late.

In some polls, Harris’ numbers with Latinos have hit dangerously low levels nationally. Biden won Latino voters nationally by a 26-point margin in 2020, but a New York Times/Siena College poll found Harris with just a 19-point lead over Trump with this group.

Other polls, however, show Harris holding even with Latino voters. One poll that broke out Latino voters in Pennsylvania released this week found Harris winning 64 percent of them to Trump’s 31 percent, an improvement over other national polls of Latino voters. A CBS News poll also found that Harris matched Biden’s 2020 vote share with Latino voters nationally.

“We don’t hold on to Nevada or Arizona or Pennsylvania, much less have a chance in Georgia, unless we turn out the Latino community for Harris,” said one Democratic pollster, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. But a challenge in activating Latino men, the pollster said, is that “when we focus a campaign so heavily on abortion, which helps us run up the numbers with women of all colors, then that’s going to cost us in persuading Hispanic men, who don’t think we’re talking about issues they care about.”

Pennsylvania Democratic state Rep. Johanny Cepeda-Freytiz echoed that challenge, arguing that when abortion “plays a role” for “faith-driven” Latino voters’ decision-making, then it’s harder to reach them. She said that especially for Latino men, “it’s hard for some of these men — older, old school, traditional — to see a woman in power.”

At the same time, Trump’s attacks on immigrants have not alienated Latino voters, according to the New York Times/Siena College poll. Instead, two-thirds of those surveyed do not believe Trump was referring to people like them.

“You have men that have been here for a while that have become assimilated. They’re disconnecting with what’s going on back home,” said Pennsylvania Democratic state Rep. Danilo Burgos. He said this has led Latino men to vote more like “other male voters.”