By Susan Davis
Republicans are favored to take control of the chamber next year thanks to a 2024 election map that has Democrats defending seven seats in conservative or swing states and on offense just two in the safe Republican states of Texas and Florida.
Democrats narrowly control the Senate 51-49 today, but with West Virginia all but certain to flip Republican after the impending retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin who registered as an independent in May.
Here are the races to watch:
Arizona
Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego has consistently polled ahead of Republican Kari Lake in the closing weeks of the election. Gallego has performed particularly well among Latino voters who have a large, and growing, influence in the state.
“I think we are seeing a coming of age for politics in Arizona,” said Stephen Nuño-Perez, politics professor at Northern Arizona University, who says Latinos increasingly are expanding their political impact in the state each election year.
Samara Klar, a politics professor at the University of Arizona say they will be watching the Latino vote closely on election night with predictions that Latino voters could make up as much as 25 percent of the state’s voting demographic.
“It rightfully gets a huge amount of attention because Latinos are a growing portion of our electorate,” Klar said.
Nevada
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen appeared poised to win the race early this election cycle, but Republicans saw an opening at the end of the race that inspired a last-minute run by the GOP in the Silver State.
In the final two weeks, the Senate Leadership Fund directed more than $6 million to the state in a “Hail Mary” effort to boost Republican challenger Sam Brown. They hoped the last-minute spending spree could fuel an upset by Brown, an Army combat veteran and Purple Heart recipient injured in Afghanistan.
“So they stormed in with millions in late advertising,” Kenneth Miller, politics professor at the University of Las Vegas, said ahead of Election Day. But “whether or not that makes a difference is a different story.”