Harris showed minimal losses among Black men, but analysts say she should have won more

Black men had been perceived as a voting bloc ripe for Donald Trump to attract after many expressed concerns a year ago about Joe Biden’s re-election efforts. An NBC News poll at that time showed that at least 20% of Black men would support Trump — an alarming number for Democrats.

Vice President Kamala Harris took over from Biden, who stepped aside under pressure in July. In the end, however, the poll from November 2023 held true: 78% of Black men selected Harris in Tuesday’s presidential election, according to the NBC News National Exit Poll. That figure was below Biden’s 2020 mark of 80%.

For one Black pollster, the reasons behind Harris’s performance are not complicated. Alvin Tillery, a professor of political science at Northwestern University and founder of the super PAC Alliance For Black Equity, said the Harris campaign used failed strategies to engage Black men, “even after all the talk about how critical it was to get their vote.”

“It was political malpractice,” Tillery said.

Harris introduced an Opportunity Agenda for Black Men, outlining what her administration would do to support that voting constituency that seemed movable. That move gained her 10 points, to 71%, in the national polls his organization conducted two weeks before the election, Tillery said. But that effort was one of the few that addressed Black men directly, he added.

“She needed 83-84% of the Black male vote,” he told NBC News. He said his organization had been raising concerns that Democrats needed to pick up more Black men to replicate 2020. “The reality is this should not come as a surprise to anyone. They were warned repeatedly throughout the year that they were not doing enough with the Black male segment. It was great to see her energy in the last two weeks, but it needed to come earlier and needed to be more targeted with digital ad spending.”

Tillery pointed out that he was not pinning the election results on Black men. Overall, 86% of Black voters backed Harris, according to NBC News’ exit poll. That figure is reflected among all age groups, though 94% of Black voters above the age of 60 voted for Harris.

Black men younger than 30 and older than 65 were the most likely to support Harris at 78% and 87%, respectively. Also, 73% of men ages 30-44 and 76% of men 45-64 supported the vice president.

“Black men did nothing wrong in this election,” Tillery said. “That’s important. The Democrats failed to message to them by running their candidate as a tough-on-crime prosecutor, which, frankly, turned a lot of the Black men off. And then they didn’t give them anything on the other side to scare the hell out of them about Donald Trump. And that is a recipe for softer turnout and a higher vote share for Trump.”

Darius Jones, founder of the National Empowerment Black Action Fund, agreed. “To imply Black men, a historically disenfranchised group, singularly hold the key to election outcomes is reductive and dismissive of the broader coalition-building that’s always necessary for victory. We must avoid casting Black men as scapegoats and saviors.”

Jones added that the numbers should be considered with nuance.

“On one hand, that level of support is substantial and highlights the unwavering commitment and resilience of Black men to the Democratic Party and the causes they believe in,” Jones said. “On the other, it reflects a broader trend where nearly a quarter of Black men are exploring alternatives.”

The Democrats, he said, should not ignore this. “For decades, Black men have been the backbone of progressive causes, yet there’s an increasing sense among many that their unique concerns are sidelined,” he added. “This is a pivotal moment where political leadership should reflect on not just the support they have, but the support they risk losing.”

Tillery said he believes that support for Harris would have been more significant if the campaign had taken a more aggressive approach that showed how Trump’s policies would affect Black men. One 30-second ad his PAC produced breaks down how Project 2025, a conservative plan for Trump’s second term, would mean increased policing of Black men. (Trump has said he has “nothing to do with Project 2025,” though the 900-page document was written by some of his allies and former aides).

“Our goal was to let people know that Donald Trump is going to implement a national stop and frisk policy,” Tillery said. “VP Harris’s campaign needed to pick up that mantle and run ads like that, talk about that more in digital ads, instead of in appearances.”

Marcus Hans, a Black voter who attended Harris’ election night watch party at Howard University, said he felt like his vote was coveted by the Harris campaign. But much of the attention he received was via text messages that included asking for donations.

“I donated once and the texts never stopped,” Hans, 57, said. “It became annoying. I understood it, but it made me question if they were more interested in money than me. I was voting for her anyway. But it did cross my mind.”

Harris made a concerted effort, especially in the waning days of the campaign to court the Black vote. She did interviews on urban radio stations and nationally syndicated shows and visited spaces like Black-owned barbershops. Trump, meanwhile, leaned on some famous Black male supporters, including controversial former NFL standouts Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, while also pitching himself to men in general through social media influencers, creators and podcasters.

But the exit poll shows that Harris did not make headway with those efforts.

“My concern is they are still doing politics as if it’s like 1984,” Tillery said. “Going to the barbershop, and having these rallies with wealthy people saying ‘I support Kamala’ isn’t working.”

Jones seemed to agree: “It’s important to recognize that the realities facing Black men are multifaceted,” he said. “Concerns about economic empowerment, public safety, cultural representation and educational opportunity weigh heavily on our community. While the campaign made efforts and should be acknowledged for doing so, there remain areas where deeper, more targeted engagement could have made a stronger impact on Black men’s concerns. There were missed opportunities to create a deeper dialogue and tangible policy commitments that spoke directly to our lived experiences.”