GOP holds onto House majority — clinching the trifecta

House control has been considered a toss-up for months. Though GOP leaders were publicly confident in their ability to retain the chamber, there were also deep fears as Republicans struggled to keep up with Democratic fundraising. Unlike in 2022, GOP leaders kept their election night estimates fairly modest. They also spent months hammering on a campaign message focused on the border and the economy, betting that the two issues could be used as a wedge to squeeze vulnerable Democrats.

Partisan redistricting has meant that there are fewer competitive seats to flip, limiting the true battleground districts to just a dozen or so races on both sides. Party leaders have acknowledged that the days of 30-plus-seat majorities are over for the foreseeable future. Republicans got some help this cycle by Democrats’ decision to pursue a less aggressive redistricting map in New York, which was at the heart of the fight for House control. Similarly, a GOP-drawn map in North Carolina also helped offset Democratic gains elsewhere.

“There’s only about 45 seats in the country that are truly competitive. … And so each one of them is very competitive and very expensive and our candidates are great,” Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) told POLITICO ahead of Election Day.

Beyond flipping Democratic seats, Republicans also managed to hold off Democrats’ reach targets that appeared to be in play in the final weeks of the campaign, including keeping endangered incumbents in Iowa and Wisconsin. The House was called for Republicans on Wednesday night after the Associated Press projected Juan Ciscomani to win reelection to Arizona’s 6th Congressional District.

Another major difference in the campaigns this year: Republicans were far more intentional with their candidate recruitment and which challengers they backed in the primaries than they were in 2022. House Republicans’ campaign arm worked closely with Trump, coordinating to boost candidates the party saw as the most likely to win the general election — a level of intervention that ultimately paid off.

Vulnerable incumbent Republicans, namely Reps. Don Bacon (Neb.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), fended off primary opponents who would likely have been weak general election candidates. In Alaska, the party managed to coalesce behind one Republican this year to avoid problems they had in 2022 with the state’s ranked-choice voting system. (That race has not yet been called, though Republican Nick Begich leads Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola.)

On the other side of candidate recruitment, Democrats’ relied on a handful of repeat candidates who narrowly lost in 2022. The party had thought they would benefit from existing campaign infrastructure and name ID among voters. But that didn’t work out for many candidates, and some were likely dragged down by a lack of enthusiasm for Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket.