Is Concern Overblown About Black Voters Not Turning Out For Biden? Experts Weigh In

Nationally, Biden and Trump are tied at 49 percent among registered voters, according to an NPR/PBS Marist National Poll released on Tuesday. In our politically divided nation, a few swing states, which can go either way, will likely determine the winner.

Alarm bells went off in November when a New York Times/Sienna College poll found that 22 percent of Black voters in six battleground states said they would support Trump. That represents a huge swing for the MAGA nation’s leader, who received just 8 percent of Black voters nationally in 2020 and 6 percent in 2016.

A Wall Street Journal poll released in April reinforced those findings. It found that 30 percent of Black men in seven swing states said they either definitely or probably will vote for Trump in November.

Biden’s chances of winning are slim if Black voters, many of them frustrated with him and the Democratic Party, either stay home on Election Day or vote for Trump. While most Black voters are rock-solid Biden supporters, a slight shift toward Trump could doom Biden’s re-election bid.

However, a shift toward Trump isn’t the only concern. A May Washington Post/Ipsos Survey of Black Americans found that only 62 percent plan to vote in November, compared to 74 percent in June 2020. That’s why Biden has been trying to shore up this essential bloc.

But polls can be wrong. Are concerns about Black voters not turning out for Biden exaggerated?

“The concern is not overblown. Biden will not get the same turnout that we saw in 2020,” Morehouse College political science professor Dr. Matthew Platt told TheRoot.

“People underestimate the impact of things that were going on in 2020. George Floyd will not be murdered this year; the country is not in a state of pandemic lockdown; and the laws governing the ease of voting have changed,” Platt continued. “It is not just that voting laws, like in Georgia, have a direct effect on voter mobilization efforts; it is that some organizations have shut down their operations entirely out of concern for the greater liabilities the new laws impose.”

Biden recognizes the challenges. Quentin Fulks, Biden’s principal deputy campaign manager, told ABC’s “This Week” co-anchor Martha Raddatz that no administration has done more for the Black community than the Biden-Harris administration. The team is making every effort to get that message out.

Indeed, Biden isn’t ready to give up as he fights for his political life. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have launched a Black voter outreach campaign to talk about how his policies have benefited the Black community and to remind folks about Trump’s racist controversies.

“This is the same guy who wanted to tear gas you as you peacefully protested George Floyd’s murder. The same guy who still calls the Central Park Five guilty, even though they were exonerated,” Biden told the crowd at Girard College in Philadelphia in May.

Platt said this is too much, too late when asked what the Biden campaign must do to ensure high Black voter turnout.

“Short of inventing time travel, which would be quite the ‘October surprise,’ there is nothing the Biden campaign can do,” he said.