Trump edges out Harris by 1 point in battleground Wisconsin survey

By Sarah Fortinsky

Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are nearly tied in a new survey of likely Wisconsin voters.

The USA Today/Suffolk University poll, released Monday, shows Trump leading Harris by 1 point, 48 to 47 percent, among likely voters in Wisconsin — a key battleground state that could help determine the election.

The survey shows a large gender gap in Wisconsin between the two presidential nominees — a trend seen in many recent surveys across the country. Harris leads Trump 55 percent to 41 percent among likely female voters in Wisconsin, while Trump leads Harris 56 percent to 38 percent among likely male voters.

Harris’s 14-point edge over Trump among women falls just short of the 17-point advantage she has over Trump in the USA Today/Suffolk University national poll of female voters, 53 percent to 36 percent. Men, meanwhile, favor Trump nationally 53 percent to 37 percent.

David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University Political Research Center, told USA Today the gap is significant among male voters — more so than when Trump faced President Biden.

“[Trump] is identifying, or that, men are mobilizing behind Trump more than they did when Biden ran against Trump,” Paleologos said, USA Today reported.

The latest poll includes a separate poll of Door County, Wis., which USA Today reported has been a bellwether for the state. In Door County, Harris leads Trump 50 percent to 47 percent.

The broad Wisconsin survey shows similar trends seen in other Wisconsin polls. Trump and Harris are neck and neck in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s Wisconsin polling average, with Trump leading 48.5 percent to Harris’s 48.1 percent.

The new survey included 500 likely voters and was conducted Oct. 20-23. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points. The Door County survey included 300 likely voters and has a margin of error of 5.7 percentage points.